Statistical Forecasts of 24, 48 and 72 h Typhoon and Tropical Storm Intensity Changes
Author
Elsberry, Russell L.
Coltrane, Glenn G.
Krueger, Paul L.
Date
1975-06Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
A 10 year (1960--69) sample of observations in western North Pacific tropical cyclones over open ocean was
used to derive statistical regression equations to forecast the maximum wind speed for 24, 48 and 72 h
periods. Stratification of the dependent data by latitude bands, by months, and by maximum intensity were
tested with both five-predictor and ten-predictor equations. An independent sample of tropical cyclones
(July, August and September of 1955-59) was used to test the derived regression equations. Verification
was in terms of the relative forecast error according to the acceptability criteria set by the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center, Guam.
Equations derived from a combined dependent sample of July, August and September storms stratified
into two bands (one north, one south of 20°N) produced forecasts which were equivalent or superior to
equations derived from storms stratified by months or in three 10° bands from 5°N to 35°N. These two
five-predictor equations for the 24 h period were also superior to equations derived for storms within the
classes ~ 65, 66-100 and ;:: 101 kt. Although not tested with a homogeneous set of forecasts using operational
data rather than post-season data, the objective forecast technique appears to give results comparable to or
better than recent official intensity forecasts, especially for the 72 h interval.
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1975)014<0445:SFOAHT>2.0.CO;2
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