Interannual variations in Arctic winter temperature: the role of global scale teleconnections
15Jun_Parrish_Kathryn.pdf (7.161Mb)Abstract
To skillfully predict Arctic climate, one must fully understand the conditions influencing Arctic climate on intraseasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal time scales. This study aims to improve climate support to U.S. military operations in the Arctic by exploring the interannual variations in Arctic temperature during the winter. We have found statistically significant and dynamically plausible mechanisms for the variation in January-March (JFM) 850 hectoPascal (hPa) Arctic air temperature (T850, °C). We used JFM Arctic T850 data for 1970–2014 to analyze the associated global scale processes from 75N–90N via time series, composite, correlation, and teleconnection analyses. The patterns and teleconnections revealed in these analyses closely resembled those that have been associated with El Niño-La Niña (ENLN). Correlations between JFM Arctic T850 and ENLN, via the Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), were statistically significant at lead times of zero to ten months, and showed that the MEI may be a good predictor of JFM Arctic T850. These results indicate a significant potential for the improvement of long-range climate support for U.S. Navy operations in the Arctic.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Arctic changes and their effects on Alaska and the rest of the United States
(2017);1. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across Alaska and the Arctic have increased over the last 50 years at a rate more than twice as fast as the global average temperature. (Very high confidence) 2. Rising ... -
Arctic Defense Concerns Reorganizing U.S. Defense Structure to Meet Threats in the Changing Arctic
(Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)Program for Culture and Conflict Studies, 2011-04-22);"The strategic 'landscape' of the Arctic region is rapidly changing as a result of the Earth's changing climate. Global warming is causing the Arctic icecap to retreat at an alarming rate. While the retreating icecap may ... -
On the Flow Through Bering Strait: A Synthesis of Model Results and Observations
(2014);Bering Strait is the only ocean connection between the Pacific and the Arctic. The flow through this narrow and shallow strait links the Pacific and Arctic oceans and impacts oceanic conditions downstream in the Chukchi ...
