U.S. Naval Officer accession sources: promotion probability and evaluation of cost

Abstract

This thesis explores the promotion probability to lieutenant commander (O-4) and commander (O-5) of major naval officer accession sources. This is important because there have been few studies to analyze the possible correlation of promotion relating to accession source and cost effectiveness. I used multivariate regression to examine the possibility of promotion of naval officers from the United States Naval Academy (USNA), Naval Reserve Officer Training Corps, and Officer Candidate School (OCS) who commissioned between fiscal years 1990 and 2000. My results showed OCS officers, on average, had a higher probability of promotion to O-4 and USNA officers, on average, had a higher probability of promotion to O-5. My regression also showed officers with graduate degrees, on average, had an increased probability of promotion in comparison to those who did not. OCS officer accessions had lower marginal costs due to shortened training timelines and post-commissioning training costs were similar for all three sources.