Analysis of change in population stance on infrastructure using a cultural geography model for stability operations

Abstract

Operations in counterinsurgency (COIN) and stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) require a cultural understanding of the population in which they are conducted. TRAC Monterey has embarked on the development of a stochastic, discrete-event simulation model called the Cultural Geography (CG) model, intended to aid the decision maker in understanding the effects of his actions on the local population. The simulation model incorporates theories in social science, along with data pertaining to a specific region, to demonstrate how the population's culture will influence their stance on issues relevant to the region. We conduct a preliminary investigation of the capabilities of the CG model. We use techniques in data mining and experimental design to determine the inputs or factors that have a significant effect on the output or results of the model. The methods we employ were able to aid in debugging the infrastructure portion of the CG model, and demonstrate the utility of efficient experimental design in developing and exploring simulations that represent human populations. Ongoing, indepth explorations of CG and related models will be beneficial as these models are refined, and will help establish the class of questions for which they are suitable.