Testing of a Revised Model Track Prediction Evaluation Expert System

Abstract

The U. S. Weather Research Program Hurricane Landfall has sponsored the Joint Hurricane Testbed program to facilitate a transition of research toward operations at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (NHC). This paper describes the effort during the 2003 hurricane season for producing a dynamical model expert system module for evaluating tropical cyclone track predictions in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. This project is to adapt for use in these basins a similar expert system for the western North Pacific that has been used successfully at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Hawaii. It follows two years worth of testing during the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and lessons learned during those two seasons were applied.