A comparison of mesoscale model forecast accuracy using random and a simplified targetting approach
Abstract
The error in mesoscale model forecasts on
the West Coast of the United States often
depends strongly on the quality of the synoptic
scale forecast. Kuypers (2000) demonstrated that
small differences in synoptic scale initial
analyses due to different random samples of the
large scale structure are sufficient to cause large
errors in the mesoscale forecast. This
dependence of the mesoscale on the synoptic
scale is often mirrored in statements like, A
good mesoscale forecast requires a good
synoptic scale forecast. The method by which a
good synoptic scale forecast is achieved is the
subject of numerous efforts at improving the
observations over the Pacific through targeting
of observations.
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