Performance of Navy's global model in predicting tropical cyclone formations in the Western North Pacific
Cheung, Kevin K.W.
Liu, Stefano C.S.
Elsberry, Russell L.
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In Cheung and Elsberry (2002), a set of criteria was developed to identify tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecast fields. Then the NOGAPS forecasts of TC formations in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1997−1999 were verified. It was found that NOGAPS successfully predicted a formation within a maximum separation threshold of 4o latitude about 70%−80% for 24-h forecasts, but only about 20%−30% for 120-h forecasts. The number of false alarms (FAs) in the NOGAPS forecasts was also examined, and a large growth in FAs occurs between 24 h and 48 h before reaching a near saturation at later times. As a follow-up to this work, further verifications will be performed on NOGAPS during 2000−2003. This period is chosen because the Emanuel cumulus parameterization scheme replaced the Arakawa-Schubert scheme in NOGAPS during June 2000. Thus, a focus of this study will be the impact of this modification on NOGAPS’ predictions of TC formations.
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