Team 5: Risk Assessment for Readiness and Life Cycle Cost for Major Weapon Systems, Scythe, Proceedings of International Data Farming Workshop 23

Abstract

In a typical simulation experiment, the analysts try to estimate the means of various performance measures, e.g., waiting times, operational availability, or life cycle cost. However the decision makers are usually more concerned with the quantile estimators, or the risk (probability) of the measurement falls below (or above) a certain threshold point. For example, the aviation squadron commander is more interested in estimating the risk that the operational availability (Ao) falls below certain threshold value such as the probability that less than 80% of the aircraft are missioncapable than an average operational availability. In this paper we present a methodology to identify significant factors that are critical for risk assessment for readiness and the life cycle cost.