Risk assessment of readiness and life cycle cost for weapon systems
Abstract
Given an acceptable level of military performance, arguably the two most
important criteria for weapon systems performance are readiness (operational
availability, or Ao) and life cycle cost (LCC). These two criteria are in conflict: one
may maximize Ao by increasing LCC or minimize LCC by degrading Ao. In this
paper, we develop a model to analyze risk factors associated with this bi-criterion
problem. To analyze the impact of input factors on risk, or variance in the outcome
criteria, we conduct Monte Carlo simulation. We then apply design of experiments
methodologies to identify risk factors by analyzing quantiles of these criteria in which
we examine the probability that cost will exceed a certain threshold dollar amount
and the probability that readiness falls below a certain threshold.
Description
Acquisition Research Sponsored Report Series
Disclaimer: The views represented in this report are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy position of
the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the Federal Government.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.NPS Report Number
NPS-CE-12-213Related items
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