Possible Roles of Atlantic Circulations on the Weakening Indian Monsoon Rainfall - ENSO Relationship
Abstract
Since the 1970s, the inverse relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and the El Nin˜o–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened considerably. The cause for this breakdown is shown to be most likely the
strengthening and poleward shift of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. These changes have led to the recent
development of a significant correlation between wintertime western European surface air temperatures and the
ensuing monsoon rainfall. This western Europe winter signal extended eastward over most of northern Eurasia
and remained evident in spring, such that the effect of the resulting meridional temperature contrast was able
to disrupt the influence of ENSO on the monsoon.
Description
Journal of Climate, Vol. 14, pp. 2376-2380, June 2001