Optimizing security force generation
Workman, Patrick E.
Dell, Robert F.
Ewing, P. Lee
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Manpower modeling plays a significant role in the growth and management of today's militaries. Unfortunately, existing models do not properly address the challenges facing the growth of recently established indigenous security forces. This thesis develops a linear program to plan the generation of a recently established indigenous security force over an unknown (infinite) horizon. The Security Force Generation Model (SFGM) is different from standard personnel models in four ways: it combines the growth of the enlisted and officer corps into a single model; it plans force growth over an infinite horizon; it provides a variable-time planning horizon with monthly and annual fidelity; and it incorporates the growth of the force through standard recruitment, a legacy force, and enlisted accessions. SFGM prescribes monthly and annual promotion rates, recruitment goals, accessions from the enlisted corps, and inclusion of the preexisting security apparatus. We demonstrate SFGM using current data from the Afghan National Army (ANA), under scenarios focused on the recently announced need to grow it from 81,000 to 134,000 soldiers. Our analysis shows that the ANA is capable of reaching the desired end strength in 28 months, but this requires enlisted accessions as the primary means of filling the officer corps and inclusion of the legacy force. Without the legacy force, the officer corps will not reach its desired strength for five years.
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