Critical Time Requirements for Operational Use of Deterministic and Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
Abstract
Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and
forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved
global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements
that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track
forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S.
tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic
model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather
Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h
warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally
used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system
is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed
multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread
information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread
must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of
deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These
requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will
be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track
forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track
warnings.
Description
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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