Investigating Navy officer retention using data farming
DeHollan, Aurel N.
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Lucas, Thomas W.
MetadataShow full item record
The allocation of nearly 30% of the Navy’s budget to personnel costs, and the importance of manning fleet requirements to maintain operational readiness create a critical need for the Navy to effectively manage the size of the force. The Navy’s personnel planners use the Officer Strategic Analysis Model (OSAM) to project officer end-strength based on policies, plans, and historical loss rates. The application of data farming to this model allows for investigation of different scenarios that can provide insight into both the behavior of the model and the behavior of the officer corps under various conditions. This study uses Design of Experiments (DOE) techniques to develop and implement an experimental design that determines the degree of stochastic variation in OSAM and explores the effect of a three-year period of poor retention of Unrestricted Line (URL) officers in paygrades O3 through O6. Analysis of results across multiple replications of a single design point indicate that OSAM produces very little stochastic variation. Regression modeling of the results allows planners to accurately and precisely predict the effect of this poor retention scenario on specific groups. This predictive capability provides the opportunity for proactive approaches to solving potential retention problems.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Demirel, Turgay. (Monterey, Calif. Naval Postgraduate School, 2002-03);This thesis examines the effect of officer commissioning sources on the retention of officers at two different career points: (1) At the end of the initial service obligation (MSR), and (2) at ten-years of service. The ...
Cheek, Sidney W. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-06);This thesis examines how the timing of graduate education affects retention among officers in the nuclear community. Officers were divided into four main categories: Earned a masters degree in the first five years of their ...
ARE MENTORS BENEFICIAL?: MENTORS’ PERFORMANCE AND ATTRIBUTES AS PREDICTORS OF RETENTION FOR MARINE OFFICERS COMMISSIONED FROM NROTC PROGRAMS Kelly, Shannon A.; Kilber, Megan E. (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2021-03);The Marine Corps’ current manpower system focuses on producing quantity over quality and fails to encourage those it wants and needs to keep to increase the diversity and longevity of its officer corps. A renewed emphasis ...