An analysis of a developing and non-developing disturbance during the predict experiment
Freismuth, Thomas M.
Montgomery, Michael T.
MetadataShow full item record
An analysis is presented of the failed re-development of ex-Gaston and the development of Karl during the 2010 PREDICT field campaign based on the European Centre for Medium RangeWeather Forecast (ECMWF) analyses. This study analyzes the flow kine-matics and dynamics of ex-Gaston to investigate the role of dry, environmental air in the failed redevelopment. The findings support the hypothesis that entrained, dry air near 600 hPa thwarted convective updraughts and vertical mass flux, which in turn leads to a reduction in vorticity and a compromised pouch at these middle levels. A compromised pouch allows further intrusion of dry air and inhibits vorticity amplification. This study supports recent work investigating the role of dry air in moist convection during tropical cyclogenesis. The circulation and vorticity dynamics of Karl are used to describe the system-scale spin-up within the marsupial paradigm frame-work. The circulation tendency shows that Karl underwent periods of spin-up and spin-down until its eventual development on 14 September. These spin-up and spin-down episodes correspond with the cycle of convective activity in the Caribbean. The development process is concomitant with recent work describing the genesis and intensification process in developing tropical cyclones.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Gaston, June Alyce (1986-03);Communication systems requirements analysis is an essential ingredient for developing new communication systems. Unfortunately, system development groups consisting of system users, analysts, and managers have not been ...
Rutherford, Blake; Dunkerton, Timothy; Montgomery, Michael; Braun, Scott (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2017-09-04);The interaction of a tropical disturbance with its environment is thought to play an important role in whether a disturbance will develop or not. Most developing disturbances are somewhat protected from the intrusion of ...
Analyzed potential vorticity fields for explosive and non-explosive cyclogenesis events during FGGE. Kirchoffer, Peter J. (1986-09);Potential vorticity and jet streak properties associated with 23 explosive and non-explosive cyclones from the western North Atlantic and western North Pacific Oceans are analyzed for the period 17 January to 23 February ...