Climate analysis and long range forecasting of radar performance in the western North Pacific

Abstract

The ability to predict the evaporation duct has important applications for naval activities, such as electronic counter-measures, surveillance, communications, and radar detection and tracking of submarine periscopes, low-flying missiles, aircraft, and surface combatants. This study addresses two major research questions: 1. Can state-of-the-science data sets, models, and methods be used to create more accurate and useful climatologies of atmospheric radar propagation? 2. Can skillful long range forecasts (LRFs) of evaporation duct heights and radar detection ranges be developed for mission planning purposes? To answer these questions, we applied modern climate data sets and methods to investigate climate scale variations in evaporation duct height (EDH) and radar detection range (RDR) in the western North Pacific (WNP). We also conducted multi-decadal hindcasts of winds, EDH, and RDR in the WNP to assess the potential for producing skillful LRFs of these variables. We identified significant variations that have the potential to be predicted at leads times of one to four months. Climate scale analyses of these and similar variations have the potential to significantly improve electromagnetic (EM) propagation climatologies by providing a more complete description of the range of possible environmental conditions for which military planners need to prepare. LRFs of these and similar variations have the potential to provide planners with predictions of which variation is most probable for a given time and location. The combination of such climate analyses and LRFs can provide environmental guidance, for example, guidance for use in planning antisubmarine warfare operators in the WNP.