Naval Postgraduate School
Dudley Knox Library
NPS Dudley Knox Library
View Item 
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  • How to search in Calhoun
  • My Accounts
  • Ask a Librarian
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Browse

All of CalhounCollectionsThis Collection

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

Experiments in error propagation within hierarchal combat models

Thumbnail
Download
Icon15Sep_Pav_Russell.pdf (1.855Mb)
Download Record
Download to EndNote/RefMan (RIS)
Download to BibTex
Author
Pav, Russell G.
Date
2015-09
Advisor
Lucas, Thomas W.
Second Reader
Kline, Jeffrey E.
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
The Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) uses a hierarchy of simulation models as part of scenario-based planning to help decide which new platforms to procure and how to employ them. Simulation is used at every level of the acquisition process, from platform design to tactics to force structure. In hierarchal combat modeling, the mean output of lower-level, higher-resolution models are used as inputs to higher-level, lower-resolution models. The goal of this process is to inform military commanders how design changes in new platforms will affect tactical performance, and how changes in tactical performance can enhance campaign effectiveness. This thesis uses a hierarchal modeling structure to examine whether including the distributions of mission model inputs instead of just the mean can affect campaign model results. A mission model of a one-on-one submarine battle is developed to determine the mean time to kill (MTTK) for the belligerents. The MTTK is sampled in a variety of ways, including just the mean, and used to calculate the attrition coefficients for a stochastic Lanchester campaign model that contains 18 Blue and 25 Red submarines. The outputs of the campaign models are analyzed statistically. The results indicate that the sampling methodology has a significant impact on the mean probability Blue wins the campaign and the mean amount of losses Blue takes when it wins. In addition, sampling methodology has a significant effect on the standard deviation for the probability Blue wins and the amount of losses Blue expects to take when it wins. These results also have practical significance: estimates of Blue’s average odds of winning range from 0.58 to 0.94, while estimates of average losses range from 4.69 to 8.31. Hierarchal combat models must adopt methods for including the entire distribution of lower-level model outcomes in order to better represent risk.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/47310
Collections
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items

Related items

Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

  • Thumbnail

    Representing Uncertainty of Hierarchical and Response Surface Models to Improve Design of Experiments 

    Lucas, Thomas W.; Sanchez, Paul J.; McDonald, Mary; Upton, Steve; Pav, Russsell (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2015);
    The Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) uses a hierarchy of simulation models as part of scenario-based planning to help decide how the Navy should be equipped, organized, and employed. Simulation is used ...
  • Thumbnail

    Propagating Uncertainty in Hierarchical Combat Models 

    Lucas, Thomas W.; Sanchez, Paul J.; Ilaslan, Salih (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2016); N16-N206-A
    The Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) uses a hierarchy of simulation models as part of scenario-based planning to help decide how the Navy should be equipped, organized, and employed. Simulation is used ...
  • Thumbnail

    Nearshore currents over a barred beach 

    Faria, Garcez; Fernando, Antonio (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1997-06);
    The objective of this dissertation is to develop numerical models and compare their predictions with data acquired during the DUCK94 experiment in order to improve our physical understanding of the hydrodynamic processes ...
NPS Dudley Knox LibraryDUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY
Feedback

411 Dyer Rd. Bldg. 339
Monterey, CA 93943
circdesk@nps.edu
(831) 656-2947
DSN 756-2947

    Federal Depository Library      


Start Your Research

Research Guides
Academic Writing
Ask a Librarian
Copyright at NPS
Graduate Writing Center
How to Cite
Library Liaisons
Research Tools
Thesis Processing Office

Find & Download

Databases List
Articles, Books & More
NPS Theses
NPS Faculty Publications: Calhoun
Journal Titles
Course Reserves

Use the Library

My Accounts
Request Article or Book
Borrow, Renew, Return
Tech Help
Remote Access
Workshops & Tours

For Faculty & Researchers
For International Students
For Alumni

Print, Copy, Scan, Fax
Rooms & Study Spaces
Floor Map
Computers & Software
Adapters, Lockers & More

Collections

NPS Archive: Calhoun
Restricted Resources
Special Collections & Archives
Federal Depository
Homeland Security Digital Library

About

Hours
Library Staff
About Us
Special Exhibits
Policies
Our Affiliates
Visit Us

NPS-Licensed Resources—Terms & Conditions
Copyright Notice

Naval Postgraduate School

Naval Postgraduate School
1 University Circle, Monterey, CA 93943
Driving Directions | Campus Map

This is an official U.S. Navy Website |  Please read our Privacy Policy Notice  |  FOIA |  Section 508 |  No FEAR Act |  Whistleblower Protection |  Copyright and Accessibility |  Contact Webmaster

Export search results

The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

A logged-in user can export up to 15000 items. If you're not logged in, you can export no more than 500 items.

To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.