The Peace Game: a data-driven evaluation of a software-based model of the effects of modern conflict on populations
White, Daniel P.
Appleget, Jeffrey A.
Lucas, Thomas W.
MetadataShow full item record
Over the years wargames have been used by decision makers and operational experts to gain insight into not only how an operation could expect to unfold, but also in unveiling gaps in capabilities of a plan or concept of operation. While most of these games focus on war, the Peace Game focuses on helping planners gain insight as to how Security Force Assistance (SFA) and Security Cooperation (SC) operations may unfold. The Peace Game attempts to model population behavior in a specific region. In the past, movement of the masses has been used as an indicator of regional stability. This thesis concentrates on assessing the migration algorithm within the Peace Game. While the current algorithm does a satisfactory job of simulating migration, it can be made better. The suggested improvements in the Peace Game focus on three models (two types of models). There are two regression models; one that models population deaths over time and another that models displaced persons over time. The third model is roughly based on a compounding interest model. This model is known as the Population Attrition Model (PAM) and is applied to both deaths and displaced persons. All of the models are grounded in an analysis of historical data from over 40 conflicts. All of the models are an improvement in simulating the reality of population migration in regions of conflict.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
McLauchlin, Matthew S. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2016-03);This research examines the Marine Corps’ implementation of its private cloud computing environment into its Enterprise Architecture. Specifically, this analysis reviews the challenges presented in migrating the USMC College ...
Analysis of analytic models for the effect of Insurgency/Counterinsurgency Operations on the general population Damalas, Kimberly A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2008-06);This thesis proposes and analyzes mathematical descriptive models of the effect of Insurgency/Counterinsurgency Operations on the population of a nation experiencing stability operations. The model is a system of ...
Stemmer, Ekkehard (Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2005-06);Such demographic factors in Europe as low fertility rates, high life expectancy, and the restricted immigration policy have caused European societies to age rapidly and the population of Europe will dramatically decline ...