Indications and warning in an age of uncertainty
Wirtz, James J.
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Indications and warning intelligence is an important and time-tested methodology employed by intelligence analysts to warn military officers and policymakers about changes in an opponent’s operational ‘‘posture’’ which indicate that the likelihood of dangerous or aggressive activity is increasing. In recent times, it has fal len out of fashion because policymakers and the public alike have come to expect that the Intelligence Community will be able to provide ‘‘specific event predictions’’ of an opponent’s future actions. In other words, people tend to believe that intelligence analysts should be able to state who is about to undertake some unwanted activity, as well as where, how, when and why the action will unfold.
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2013.780558
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