Optimizing promotion opportunity and in-zone range for the unrestricted Marine Corps Researve officer population

Abstract

This paper illustrates the development of a five-year promotion plan and 10-year forecast for the unrestricted Marine Corps Reserve (MCR) colonel (06) population using Markov chains and goal programming. A Markov chain model is used to represent the 05 and 06 MCR population. A goal program allows the specification of grade strength targets set by statutory limitations for the rank of 06. Using a linear program with promotion opportunity and in-zone-time-in-grade (TIG) range as decision variables for a five-year planning horizon, the goals of the model are to meet grade strength target and produce consistent promotion opportunity and in-zone values across the planning horizon. The entire unrestricted Reserve officer population is then modeled for an additional five years to monitor company and field grade officer strengths upon returning to the running mate system.