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dc.contributor.authorRegnier, Eva
dc.contributor.otherDefense Resources Management Institute (DRMI)
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-12T18:09:36Z
dc.date.available2016-02-12T18:09:36Z
dc.date.issued2014-08-18
dc.identifier.citationDRMI Working Paper, 26 p.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/47784
dc.description.abstractA probability sequence is an ordered set of probability forecasts for the same event. Although single-period probabilistic forecasts and methods for evaluating them have been extensively analyzed, we are not aware of any prior work on evaluating probability sequences. This paper proposes an efficiency condition for probability sequences and shows properties of efficient forecasting systems, including memorylessness and increasing discrimination. These results suggest tests for efficiency and remedial interventions for inefficient systems.en_US
dc.format.extent26 p.en_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California; Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleEfficient probability sequenceen_US
dc.typeReporten_US
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)


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