Manpower analysis using discrete simulation

Abstract

Career management and progression of Supply Corps officers is performed by PERS-4412, considering such factors of interest as number of accessions to make and tour lengths. To study the effect of policy choices on the underlying system, this thesis focused on model building using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and experimentation using Design of Experiments (DOE). We derived five metamodels to identify the most important factors that describe the personnel system response (model outputs) as functions of the policy choices (simulation inputs). Multiple regressions and the resultant profiler allowed fine-tuning of the inputs to arrive at personnel policy recommendations in which all but one of the system objectives were met.