Z-M in lightning forecasting

Abstract

Frozen hydrometeors are required for a storm to produce lightning. Previous research has made strong correlations between ice mass and lightning flash rate and lightning flash density. This study attempted to correlate ice mass to lightning potential Operational interest is centered at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station/Kennedy Space Center where accurate weather forecasting is vital to mission requirements, resource protection, and personnel safety. Four pulse storms were chosen for the study: 2 June 2004, 26 June 2004, 6 June 2005, and 15 June 2005. These storms were known lightning producers. The ice mass of each storm was calculated using a new layered approach called Layered Vertically Integrated Frozen Content (LVIF). The LVIF technique uses radar reflectivity (Z) to calculate ice content (M) at six temperature layers between -10°C and -40°C, with each layer 5°C. This Z-M relationship was analyzed for lightning potential. The results indicate there is no correlation between LVIF and lightning potential.