Significant pre-accession factors predicting success or failure during a Marine Corps officer’s initial service obligation

Abstract

Increasing diversity and equal opportunity in the military is a congressional and executive priority. At the same time, improving recruiting practices is a priority of the commandant of the Marine Corps. In an effort to provide information to the Marine Corps that may improve recruiting practice and enable retention of a higher quality and more diverse officer corps, probit econometric models are estimated to identify significant factors an officer candidate possesses prior to accession in predicting the probability of career success, as determined by career designation, and the probability of career failure, as determined by separation under unfavorable conditions and receiving a legal action while commissioned. Results showed demographic characteristics, such as race and marital status, significantly predict career success and career failure. In addition, officers with reenrollment waivers for withdrawal or dismissal from OCS, USNA, and NROTC proved less likely to be selected for career designation and more likely to be separated under unfavorable conditions. Based on the findings, the Marine Corps should reevaluate whether to grant reenrollment waivers to officer candidates, should improve data collection, and strongly consider using non-cognitive assessment during the officer candidate screening process. The researcher also recommends ways to improve the models used in this study.