A Dynamical-Statistical Approach to Forecasting Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific
MetadataShow full item record
In the 1970s, Dr. Bill Gray proposed that tropical cyclone (TC) (strong TCs in the Atlantic are known as hurricanes) formation was strongly influenced by several large scale environmental factors (LSEFs): high sea surface temperature, low vertical wind shear, upward moving air, positive vorticity, and high humidity. Since then, observations of hundreds of storms have reinforced Gray’s findings, but with the caveat that the LSEFs are necessary but not sufficient for TC formation. Since its inception in 2007, Statistical Solutions LLC, in collaboration with the Naval Postgraduate School, has built upon these results to: 1. Test LSEFs for statistical significance 2. Develop a statistical model that relates the LSEFs to TC formation 3. Force the model with dynamical weather model forecasts of the LSEFs at leads ranging from 1 day to 90+ days to create probabilistic forecasts of TC formation 4. Evaluate those forecasts for skill In this paper, we discuss the process of significance testing of the predictor LSEFs, statistical model development, selection of optimal dynamical model outputs, and visualization of the outputs. We also show examples of TC formation forecasts at various leads, and close with a discussion of the challenges of forecast verification.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Dorics, Theodore G. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2002-06);The Navy requirement for 5-day tropical cyclone track guidance necessitates an assessment of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclone formation. The Tropical Cyclone ...
Regnier, Eva (Informs, 2018);Many probability forecasts are revised as new information becomes available, generating a time series of forecasts for a single event. Although methods for evaluating probability forecasts have been extensively studied, ...
USING BAYESIAN STATISTICAL POST-PROCESSING TECHNIQUES TO IMPROVE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS Cummings, Sabrina L. (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2018-06);This thesis examines the use of statistical post-processing techniques involving Bayesian estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to aid in the reduction or elimination of tropical cyclone track and intensity ...