The headless horseman: a theoretical and strategic assessment of leadership targeting

Abstract

Under what conditions is leadership targeting against terrorist groups likely to be effective? This paper develops a theory of leadership (based on work in sociology, organizational design, political science (collective action problem), and terrorism studies) which argues that leaders potentially perform two main functions – they provide inspiration and/or operational direction. The more important the individual leader is in providing these functions to the organization, the more likely that leadership targeting will be effective. Case studies of Aum Shinrikyo in Japan, the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) of Algeria, and the Shining Path of Peru are used to demonstrate the validity of the argument.