State-Space Size Considerations for Disease-Progression Models
Regnier, Eva D.
Shechter, Steven M.
MetadataShow full item record
Markov models of disease progression are widely used to model transitions in patients’ health state over time. Usually, patients’ health status may be classified according to a set of ordered health states. Modelers lump together similar health states into a finite and usually small, number of health states that form the basis of a Markov chain disease-progression model. This increases the number of observations used to estimate each parameter in the transition probability matrix. However, lumping together observably distinct health states also obscures distinctions among them and may reduce the predictive power of the model. Moreover, as we demonstrate, precision in estimating the model parameters does not necessarily improve as the number of states in the model declines. This paper explores the tradeoff between lumping error introduced by grouping distinct health states and sampling error that arises when there are insufficient patient data to precisely estimate the transition probability matrix.
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.5808
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and Security, 2006-10);October 2006. Welcome to Volume 2, Issue Three of Homeland Security Affairs. This issue is dedicated to the memory of Lacy Suiter. I believe Lacy would be embarrassed by the idea of dedicating an issue of anything to him. ...
Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and Security, 2009-01);January 2009. In this issue of Homeland Security Affairs we offer one essay that outlines some of the important homeland security issues of 2008 and a set of essays that describes a potentially significant change in the ...
Branch, Perry L. (2008-06);Since the year 2000, the United States Navy has spent an average of half a billion dollars over the congressionally approved budget for shipbuilding. Additionally, most experts project that in order to meet the Chief of ...