An analysis of the effect of the global war on terror on the retention of graduates of the U.S. Naval academy

Abstract

This thesis aims to analyze the effect of the Global War on Terror (GWOT) on the retention behavior of the United States Naval Academy (USNA) graduate Navy and Marine Corps junior officers one year after their minimum service obligation (MSO). The data used for the analyses covers cohorts from 1990 to 2007. Three logistic regression models were constructed to estimate the impact of increasing operational tempo due to the GWOT. Three separate models were created for the Marine Corps to measure the effect of hostile deployments. The models included demographic, service, and deployment variables, as well as a difference-in-difference estimator to capture the effect of the GWOT. Deployments either before or after the GWOT had a positive effect on the retention behavior for both the Navy and the Marine Corps. However, hostile deployment decreased the likelihood to retain for the Marine Corps.