An analysis of factors predicting graduation at United States Marine Corps Officer Candidates School
McNeill, Donald B.
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Whitaker, Lyn R.
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All officers commissioned in the Marine Corps except those from the Naval Academy are required to successfully complete an intense screening program at Officer Candidates School (OCS). The Marine Corps is attempting to improve its officer selection process and reduce attrition at OCS by determining which candidates it should recruit and send to OCS. In late 2000, the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) commissioned a 67-question survey that has been given to all candidates entering OCS since fall of 2000. The results of this survey were used to build models to provide a probability of success of candidates based upon responses to the survey and other demographic data. One model created from this survey was used to build a computer desktop tool that officers may use to assist in selecting the candidates who have the highest probability of success at OCS and in preparing them for the rigors of OCS. This tool provides a probability of graduation for each candidate that is 99.8% correlated with the actual graduation rate of other candidates who have similar characteristics to the candidate whose probability of graduation was calculated.
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