Determining a retention model for the Selected Marine Corps Reserve
Dausman, Andrew D.
Seagren, Chad W.
Licari, Anthony D.
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This thesis develops a retention model for the Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR). Data for this model were pulled from the Marine Corps’ Total Force Data Warehouse for the fiscal years: 2009 through 2015. The model forecasts SMCR continuation requirements in lieu of reenlistment requirements because reenlistment contracts in the Marine Corps Reserve are not specific to a particular reserve sub-component. Using Markov-chain forecasting, the model applies transition rates to the current-year SMCR enlisted inventory to determine the future state of the inventory, by grade and military occupational specialty (MOS). The forecasted inventory is subtracted from the Grade Adjusted Recapitulation (GAR) to arrive at the requisite number of continuations by grade and MOS. The GAR, provided by Headquarters, United States Marine Corps (HQMC), identifies optimal inventory. Manpower planners can use the forecasted continuation requirements to shape retention initiatives and prioritize resources.
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