Improved modeling of three-point estimates for decision making: going beyond the triangle

Download
Author
Mulligan, Daniel W.
Date
2016-03Advisor
Rhoades, Mark
Second Reader
Owen, Walter
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Decision making in engineering development projects and programs relies on numbers. This quantitative support can involve uncertainty that is frequently characterized by three-point estimates of decision variables. Modeling of these estimates for analysis commonly utilizes the triangular distribution for its simplicity, but errors could be introduced if another distribution model is more appropriate for the data. This study measures statistics from distribution types ranging from fully flat to narrowly peaked, fitting estimates for all sizes of minimum to maximum ranges and spanning the complete spectrum of asymmetry. The study compares common statistical values for each distribution to an equivalent triangular distribution. It calculates the error size for the mean, high-confidence interval, and coefficient of variation. The study then provides recommendations for when to use a triangular distribution or a different model. The guidelines are based on a weight factor of the distribution mode and the estimate’s maturity to produce an objective set of guidelines for selecting distribution shapes best suited to model any given three-point estimate. With these guidelines, estimators and modelers can quickly and easily provide a more accurate uncertainty analysis to support decision makers.
Rights
Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Agile and Lean Systems Engineering: Kanban in Systems Engineering
Turner, Richard; Madachy, Ray; Lane, Jo Ann; Ingold, Dan; Levine, Laurence (SERC, 2013-03-06); SERC-2013-TR-022-2This is the 2nd of two reports that were created for research on this topic funded through SERC. The first report, SERC-TR-032-1 dated March 13, 2012, constituted the 2011-2012 Annual Technical Report and the Final Technical ... -
Cost analysis of recapitalizing Marine light attack helicopter assets: a case study
Brown, Conrad Nelson (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1995-12);This thesis focuses on the development of a spreadsheet model that can be used by acquisition personnel to forecast the life-cycle costs of a weapon system under consideration for acquisition, helicopters for Marine Light ... -
A comprehensive guide to C3 system development
Shin, In Sub (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1990-03);This thesis provides guidelines to develop a C3 system, including both organizational and physical systems. It contains the concept, architecture, design and engineering approaches, the integrated C3 framework, test and ...