Accuracy of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts in the North Pacific and Atlantic
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In recent years, track forecasts by dynamical models have improved, and subsequently, the consensus track forecast has become a reliable “starting point” for the forecaster. However, Blackerby (2005) and Lambert (2005) have shown that improvements of intensity forecasts have been slower in coming (Fig. 1). Given the lack of skill of intensity forecast techniques, a consensus of such techniques does not perform as well as a consensus of track forecasts, and the lack of a good consensus makes the forecast of intensity a daunting task.
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Global model forecasts of 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclone formations after post-processing to account for initial intensity Chesser, Stephen G. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2008-03);The objective of this thesis was to test the impact on Atlantic tropical cyclone formation forecasts during 2005 by three global models via a post-processing technique of adjusting the initial conditions to match the ...
Blackerby, Jason S. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2005-03);Consensus methods require that the techniques have no bias and have skill. The accuracy of six statistical and dynamical model tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was examined for western North Pacific tropical ...
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