Accuracy of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts in the North Pacific and Atlantic
MetadataShow full item record
In recent years, track forecasts by dynamical models have improved, and subsequently, the consensus track forecast has become a reliable “starting point” for the forecaster. However, Blackerby (2005) and Lambert (2005) have shown that improvements of intensity forecasts have been slower in coming (Fig. 1). Given the lack of skill of intensity forecast techniques, a consensus of such techniques does not perform as well as a consensus of track forecasts, and the lack of a good consensus makes the forecast of intensity a daunting task.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Global model forecasts of 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclone formations after post-processing to account for initial intensity Chesser, Stephen G. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2008-03);The objective of this thesis was to test the impact on Atlantic tropical cyclone formation forecasts during 2005 by three global models via a post-processing technique of adjusting the initial conditions to match the ...
Blackerby, Jason S. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2005-03);Consensus methods require that the techniques have no bias and have skill. The accuracy of six statistical and dynamical model tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was examined for western North Pacific tropical ...
Hughes, James R. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2007-03);A long-range (96 h â 120 h) weighted position consensus for tropical cyclone tracks is evaluated for 24 western North Pacific storms in 2006. The first weighted position technique simply weights the 96-h, 108-h, and 120-h ...