Downstream Development Associated with the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific
Harr, Patrick A.
Dea, Jonathon M.
MetadataShow full item record
The movement of a tropical cyclone into the midlatitudes involves interactions among many complex physical processes over a variety of space and time scales. Furthermore, the extratropical transition (ET) of a tropical cyclone may also result in a high-amplitude Rossby-wave response that can extend to near hemispheric scales. After an ET event over the western portion of a Northern Hemisphere ocean basin, the highamplitude downstream response often forces anomalous midlatitude circulations for periods of days to a week. These circulations may then be related to highimpact weather events far downstream of the forcing by the ET event. In this study, downstream development following ET events over the western North Pacific is examined. Local eddy kinetic energy analyses are conducted on four cases of North Pacific tropical cyclones of varying characteristics during ET into varying midlatitude flow characteristics during 15 July – 30 September 2005. The goal is to examine the impact of each case on downstream development across the North Pacific during a period in which these events might increase midlatitude cyclogenesis across the North Pacific during a season in which cyclogenesis is typically weak. Cases are chosen to represent the wide spectrum of variability in ET. This includes a case that directly resulted in an intense midlatitude cyclone, a case in which a weak midlatitude cyclone resulted, a case in which the decaying tropical cyclone was absorbed into the midlatitude flow, and a case in which the tropical cyclone decayed under the influence of strong vertical wind shear. The variability in downstream response to each ET case is related to specific physical characteristics associated with the evolution of the ET process and the phasing between the poleward-moving tropical cyclone and the midlatitude circulation into which it is moving.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Harr, P.A.; Elsberry, R.L. (American Meteorological Society, 1995-05-01);The basic structure of the variability of the large-scale circulations over the tropical western Pacific is investigated with respect to its influence on tropical cyclone characteristics. A vector empirical orthogonal ...
Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part IV : sources of large track errors by dynamical models Reader, Grahame; Boothe, Mark A.; Elsberry, Russell L.; Carr, Lester E. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2000-08); NPS-MR-00-004Sources of 72-h track errors > 300 n mi by four dynamical model tropical cyclone predictions in the Southern Hemisphere during the 1997-98 and 1998-99 seasons are studied using conceptual models Carr and Elsberry have ...
Payne, Kathryn A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-06);Whereas the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has ten track forecasts to 72 h, only four dynamical model forecasts are available at 96 h and 120 h. Forming a selective consensus (SCON) by proper removal of a likely ...