Scoping Future Nuclear Proliferation Risks: Leveraging Emerging Trends in Socio-Cultural Modeling and Analysis
Johnson, Jeannie L.
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The key objective of this project has been to identify and then refine cutting-edge sociocultural analytic models tailored to anticipate aspiring WMD actors and identify points of leverage within their national communities. In doing so, we hope to supply insights for strategic planners seeking to thwart, disrupt, or productively shift nuclear weapons activity. In order to achieve that end, our team: ✦ (Section I) Combined key features of two socio-cultural models successfully employed within the intelligence community into a framework designed to identify and capture critical components of WMD decisionmaking within a regime; ✦ (Section II) Commissioned a set of papers employing the Cultural Topography Analytic Framework (CTAF) in order to draw out key insights for the effective application of assurance, deterrence, dissuasion, and denial, with an eye toward an era in which the US may be engaging both an ally and an adversary at the same time. These papers delivered specific country insights in three key areas: ✦ Key cultural components of the narratives driving WMD decisionmaking within the regime; ✦ Decision vectors that may provide windows of opportunity for US policymakers; ✦ Tailored policy recommendations for the way ahead in engaging this regime. ✦ (Section III) Drawing on our collective findings, this report offers primary takeaways and promising avenues for the way ahead in anticipating nuclear activity and forging tailored strategies in order to achieve US policy ends.
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