Sequential pattern detection and time series models for predicting IED attacks

Download
Author
Stafford, William B.
Date
2009-03Advisor
Kamel, Magdi
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Improvised explosive device (IED) attacks are a significant threat to coalition forces. Defeating IEDs as weapons of strategic influence has become a major objective of Combatant Commanders and their respective Joint Task Forces. This thesis attempts to identify new approaches that can help operational forces mitigate the risk of IED attacks by identifying common sequences of events that occur before an IED attack and forecasting the number of attacks in the immediate future. Using the CARMA association rules algorithm on historical data of religious, political, and IED attack events, a model is developed to explore commonly occurring sequences of events leading to an insurgency IED attack and to predict events that are likely to occur given the sequence observed to date. Time series models are also generated to identify trends and relationships that can be helpful in forecasting future monthly IED attacks based upon previous actual historical attacks. The identified sequences and forecasts could be used to help plan troop movements, rotations, force levels, as well as allocating limited resources to address imminent threats.
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Homeland Security Affairs Journal, Supplement - 2013: IEEE 2012 Conference on Technology for Homeland Security: Best Papers
Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and Security, 2013-04);IEEE Supplement 2013. Supplement: IEEE 2012 Conference on Technology for Homeland Security: Best Papers Homeland Security Affairs is proud to publish the best papers from the IEEE 2012 Conference on Technology for Homeland ... -
The Role of Focusing Events in Determining Intelligence Success and Failure (DRAFT)
Dahl, Erik J. (2010-02);The concept of "focusing event" has been used in the literature on government policy making to explain how disasters and crises can stimulate policy change and help organizations and decision-makers learn. Since the 9/11 ... -
NPSNET: object animation script interpretation system.
West, Phillip D. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1991-09);The goal of this work is to develop a text-based script interpretation system for easy and efficient 3D visual simulations without extensive programming. Scripts are sequences of events representing task-level behaviors ...