The Art of the Intelligence Autopsy
Article (108.5Kb)Abstract
Although intelligence postmortems are a common practice in the aftermath
of intelligence failure, little is known about how they are conducted. This article
explores the methodology employed by Robert Jervis in intelligence postmortems that
followed the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979 and the formulation of the 2002 Iraq
national intelligence estimate that warned of the possibility that Iraq had restarted its
nuclear program. The analysis reveals the challenges faced by scholars as they attempt to
assess why analysts failed to offer accurate estimates and the way contemporary
international relations theory can be applied to the realm of policy. The findings of the
postmortems also shed light on areas where additional collaboration among scholars
and analysts can advance the art of intelligence analysis.
Description
This article was previously published in a collection of essays in honor of
Robert Jervis; see James W. Davis (ed.), Psychology, Strategy and Conflict:
Perceptions of Insecurity in International Relations (Oxford: Routledge
2012).
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2012.748371
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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