The Art of the Intelligence Autopsy
Wirtz, James J.
MetadataShow full item record
Although intelligence postmortems are a common practice in the aftermath of intelligence failure, little is known about how they are conducted. This article explores the methodology employed by Robert Jervis in intelligence postmortems that followed the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979 and the formulation of the 2002 Iraq national intelligence estimate that warned of the possibility that Iraq had restarted its nuclear program. The analysis reveals the challenges faced by scholars as they attempt to assess why analysts failed to offer accurate estimates and the way contemporary international relations theory can be applied to the realm of policy. The findings of the postmortems also shed light on areas where additional collaboration among scholars and analysts can advance the art of intelligence analysis.
This article was previously published in a collection of essays in honor of Robert Jervis; see James W. Davis (ed.), Psychology, Strategy and Conflict: Perceptions of Insecurity in International Relations (Oxford: Routledge 2012).The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2012.748371
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Channell, Ralph Norman (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1996-04);Intelligence support to the operating forces has been restructured to provide intelligence required along the joint command organization. Although there have been joint intelligence organizations previously, most ...
Levytskyi, Valentyn (2001-03);The goal of the thesis is to explore economic intelligence. The work includes the analysis of open sources. Tile approach to the issue of economic intelligence is based on the analysis of the state's economic security. The ...
Identifying Best Practices in the dissemination of intelligence to first responders in the fire and EMS services Richardson, Thomas J. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010-09);September 11, 2001 thrust the fire service into the world of intelligence but the evolution of its involvement has been slow and challenging. The evolving role in the intelligence process presents unprecedented challenges. ...