An evolving asymmetric game for modeling interdictor-smuggler problems
Allain, Richard J.
Alderson, David L.
Carlyle, W. Matthew
MetadataShow full item record
We propose a novel network interdiction model that reconciles many operational realities identified by military literature. Specifically, we conduct network interdiction within a dynamic network under partial information, using incomplete feedback and allowing two-sided adaptive play. Combining these aspects in an evolving game, we use optimization, simulation, and stochastic models to achieve a hybrid model. Modeling some currently underrepresented martial problems in this way makes it possible to highlight otherwise obscure relationships between policy and outcome, and to discover emergent effects, such as deterrence. As an example of this class of problems, we consider the struggle between a smuggler and interdictor. The smuggler seeks to maximize the amount of forces and materiel infiltrated from an origin to destination. The interdictor seeks to minimize this smuggler flow. Using two simple examples of an illicit-trafficking network, we demonstrate how to use these quantitative models within such an interdictor-smuggler context to (1) evaluate the value of seizures as a proxy for smuggled materiel, (2) assess the value of exploration, and (3) provide decision makers with practical ways to better allocate resources and increase effectiveness.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Royset, Johannes O.; Pietz, Jesse (2015);International law enforcement organizations around the world endeavor to combat high drug related mortality rates by seizing illicit drugs in transit over international waters. This mission requires e ective plans that ...
Bessman, Daniel L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010-09);Counterdrug operations are of national interest to the U.S. and our allies because the illegal production and trafficking of drugs threatens U.S. national security and undermines security and stability in Latin America. ...
Washburn, Alan; Wood, Kevin (1995);A single evader attempts to traverse a path between two nodes in a network while a single interdictor attempts to detect the evader by setting up an inspection point along one of the network arcs. For each arc there is a ...