Modeling anti-air warfare with discrete event simulation and analyzing naval convoy operations

Abstract

Anti-air warfare (AAW) is a primary naval warfare area. Using AAW tactics and concepts of operations, this research explores the most critical success factors of convoy operations. In this study, a discrete event simulation (DES) was built by modeling ships, and their sensors and weapons, to simulate convoy operations under air threat. Where classified data was unavailable, assumptions were made and approximations were used in constructing the ships, weapons, and sensors. The model was used to simulate over 1.5 million naval battles varying 99 input variables using sophisticated and systematically created data combinations. To select the input settings over a specific range of input variables, a nearly orthogonal nearly balanced (NOB) Latin hypercube design was used. The effects of these input changes on the outputs were analyzed using partition trees and nominal logistic regression. The primary response variable was the survival of the High Value Unit (HVU) as a binary outcome. According to the analysis, in a convoy operation under air threat, the surface-to-air missile (SAM) specifications of the screen ships, the staying power of the HVU, and the anti-ship missile (ASM) specifications of the enemy ships had the most significant effect on the survival of the HVU.