Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a fire-induced accident scenario involving binary variables and mechanistic codes
Minton, Mark A.
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In response to the transition by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection rulemaking standard, Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been improved, particularly in the areas of advanced fire modeling and computational methods. In order to gain a more meaningful insight into the methods currently in practice, it was decided that a scenario incorporating the various elements of uncertainty specific to a fire PRA would be analyzed. Fire induced Main Control Room (MCR) abandonment scenarios are a significant contributor to the total Core Damage Frequency (CDF) estimate of many operating nuclear power plants. This report details the simultaneous application of state-of-the-art model and parameter uncertainty techniques to develop a defensible distribution of the probability of a forced MCR abandonment caused by a fire within a MCR benchboard. This report details the simultaneous application of state-of-the-art model and parameter uncertainty techniques to develop a defensible distribution of the probability of a forced MCR abandonment caused by a fire within a MCR.
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