IED pattern recognition using sinusoidal models
Ardohain, Christopher M.
MetadataShow full item record
More than half of all U.S. casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan were caused by improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Despite the spending of over $75 billion to combat this threat, intelligence analysts still lack efficient tools to conduct IED pattern analysis. This thesis evaluates sinusoidal models for effectiveness in assisting in the identification of IED patterns. We formulate three models to test against IED patterns encountered in Iraq and Afghanistan: the Hawkes point process, the non-linear optimization of a sine function, and discrete Fourier transforms (DFT). Non-linear optimization and DFT models both out-perform a mean inter-arrival model when applied to representative IED patterns. We also applied these models against portions of an Iraq IED dataset using a rolling horizon forecast. Lastly, we test model performance when applied to patterns identified from the Iraq dataset. We conclude that although there is not a silver bullet for IED pattern detection, the use of these models in IED environments has the potential to reduce the amount of time and effort intelligence analysts expend when identifying IED patterns. We recommend incorporating these models into a graphic user interface usable by intelligence analysts responsible for IED pattern recognition.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Classifying vessels operating in the South China Sea by origin with the Automatic Identification System Cull, Kimberly M. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2018-03);This research focuses on building classification models with multinomial responses based upon seven months of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data gathered from the South China Sea. The models, built using Gradient ...
An analysis of primary military occupational specialties on retention and promotion of mid-grade officers in the U.S. Marine Corps Perry, Tracy A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-03);The purpose of this thesis is to identify and evaluate factors that affect retention and promotion of mid-grade officers in the U.S. Marine Corps. The analysis includes evaluation of survival patterns to ten-years of ...
Srinivasan, G.R.; Ekaterinaris, J.A.; McCroskey, W.J. (1995-01);Unsteady flowfields of a two-dimensional oscillating airfoil are calculated using an implicit, finite-difference, Navier Stokes numerical scheme. Five widely used turbulence models are used with the numerical scheme to ...