To the greatest lengths al Qaeda, proximity, and recruitment risk

Abstract

In October 2007, a raid in the town of Sinjar, Iraq produced a large trove of foreign fighter personnel records. In the years since this discovery, researchers have used this data in an effort to illuminate the places from which recruits joined Al Qaeda and associated movements. While that research is important, it has placed little emphasis on the particular hometowns of these fighters. Thus, building upon social movement theory, environmental criminology, and geospatial analysis techniques, this research will build and test several spatial regression models of the factors potentially contributing to Al Qaeda recruitment patterns in North Africa. Moreover, this study also applies a new spatial crime analysis technique that maps risk terrain in a process using environmental factors to calculate the risk of recruitment. In all, these spatially integrated social science techniques hold great potential for improving intelligence support to ongoing contingency operations.