Analysis of error propagation within hierarchical air combat models
Lucas, Thomas W.
MetadataShow full item record
Operations research analysts often use a hierarchy of combat models to provide insight to military decision makers. Briefly, lower-level, higher-resolution models provide input to higher-level, lower-resolution models. This allows analysts to explore how engineering and tactics changes can affect campaign effectiveness. This thesis builds upon previous research and examines various methods for employing distributions of engagement-level model outputs as input to campaign-level models, instead of just using the average. We contrast methods for linking the engagement-level model to the campaign-level model. Previous research indicates that when expected values alone are propagated through layers of combat models, the final results will likely be biased, and risk underestimated. An air-to-air engagement model is developed to generate a data library that is used as input in a stochastic Lanchester campaign model. A variety of sampling methods are employed to sample from the engagement model's output data library to provide input to the campaign model. The results indicate that the manner in which the engagement and campaign models are linked has substantial impact on the estimates of operational effectiveness and risk. Additionally, our research illustrates how running a designed experiment on the engagement-level model, to generate a library of data that can be linked to the campaign-level model, can support robust decision making.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Pav, Russell G. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2015-09);The Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) uses a hierarchy of simulation models as part of scenario-based planning to help decide which new platforms to procure and how to employ them. Simulation is used at every ...
Gozel, Ramazan (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2000-09);This thesis applies several Firepower Score attrition algorithms to real data. These algorithms are used in highly aggregated combat models to predict attrition and movement rates. The quality of the available historical ...
Kirk, Philip M. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-06);Since the events of September 11, 2001, there has been an increased emphasis on citizen preparedness in the United States. But over 12 years later, the overall level of preparedness for individuals remains basically ...