When is Information Sufficient for Action? Search with Unreliable Yet Informative Intelligence
Atkinson, Michael P.
MetadataShow full item record
We analyze a variant of the whereabouts search problem, in which a searcher looks for a target hiding in one of n possible locations. Unlike in the classic version, our searcher does not pursue the target by actively moving from one location to the next. Instead, the searcher receives a stream of intelligence about the location of the target. At any time, the searcher can engage the location he thinks contains the target or wait for more intelligence. The searcher incurs costs when he engages the wrong location, based on insufficient intelligence, or waits too long in the hopes of gaining better situational awareness, which allows the target to either execute his plot or disappear. We formulate the searcher’s decision as an optimal stopping problem and establish conditions for optimally executing this search-and-interdict mission.
The article of record may be found at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2016.1488
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Towards the efficient solution of an ASW search problem Eagle, James N. (Office of Naval Research, 1987);The problem addressed here was motivated by search problems encountered by antisubmarine warfare (ASW) forces. In particular, we postulate that a target submarine has been detected by a long-range sensor. After the ...
Naval tactical decisions under uncertainty: some case studies Gaver, Donald P. Jr. (Office of Naval Research, 1987);The problem addressed here was motivated by search problems encountered by antisubmarine warfare (ASW) forces. In particular, we postulate that a target submarine has been detected by a long-range sensor. After the ...
Threat Density Map Modeling for Combat Simulations Baez, Francisco R.; Darken, Christian J. (2014);The modeling and simulation community has used probability threat maps and other similar approaches to address search problems and improve decision-making. Probability threat maps describe the probability of a location ...