Iranian regime reform opportunities and consequences
McDowell, William C.
Robinson, Glenn E.
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Policymakers, military leaders, and political analysts alike have been pondering whether the United States should support regime change in Iran. Iranian regime change supports U.S. national interests in preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, stemming human rights abuses, promoting civil liberties, and encouraging a more Western-friendly regime. The Green Movement has risen as a social movement in Iran that could challenge the regime and force regime reform. However, the Green Movement needs external support to be successful before the current regime develops a nuclear weapons capability. Analysis of the strengths and weakness of the Iranian regime and the Green Movement is used to identify opportunities and consequences of U.S. intervention. Game theory is used to identify the best course of action for U.S. intervention in Iran. The analysis in this thesis determines that U.S. covert support of the Green Movement using elements of soft power, such as psychological operations, computer network operations, and unconventional warfare, is the best means to enhance the Green Movement's ability to affect regime reform.
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