U.S. and NATO naval engagement with Russia in the Black Sea: historical patterns and current prospects

Abstract

Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014, the United States and its NATO Allies have increased their military presence and exercises in the Black Sea focused on deterring Russian aggression or coercion. Russia has also increased the number and magnitude of its exercises in the region. In some interactions in this region, Russia has acted in an unprofessional manner and has engaged in provocative conduct against U.S. and NATO military units to an extent that has placed future U.S.–Russian and NATO–Russian relations into question. This thesis analyzes how Russia's ambitious military maneuvers and the subsequent U.S.–NATO responses have resulted in a security dilemma in the Black Sea region. Russia's Black Sea Fleet buildup and modernization program will generate new economic and security concerns that the United States and NATO will confront as Russia's military capabilities expand in the region. Despite the NATO Allies' attempts to establish cooperation and open dialogue with Russia, Moscow seems unwilling to reciprocate. Until Russia engages in cooperation and open dialogue with the NATO Allies, the security dilemma will persist, and it may result in a possible flashpoint in the Black Sea region.