Shades of gray: releasing the cognitive binds that blind us

Download
Author
Hensley, Patrick D.
Date
2016-09Advisor
Kiernan, Kathleen
Rollins, John
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
The United States Intelligence Community is tasked with providing the intelligence necessary to protect the homeland and U.S. interests abroad. Technology acts as a force multiplier for intelligence analysts, but that advantage also comes with substantial risk. The risk lies in our reliance on technology and processes, and the tradecraft of intelligence analysis and critical thinking appears to be losing relevance. During the intelligence analysis process, weak signals are often identified and then dismissed. In hindsight, these weak signals are realized as missed opportunities that could have allowed the Intelligence Community to mitigate the threat. This research examines cognitive bias from multiple perspectives and affirms that cognitive bias does influence intelligence analysis, and intelligence analysts need to understand the effects of cognitive bias. This research presents a recent case study and determines the negative influences of those biases had an impact on the decisions that were ultimately made in error. As a result of this research and analysis, several mitigation strategies are identified and included as recommendations to the Intelligence Community. These strategies present the United States with an opportunity to decrease the influences of cognitive bias on intelligence analysis, leading to a more effective and resilient Intelligence Community.
Rights
Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Advanced Concepts and Applications for Predictive Analytics in the Maritime Domain
Johnson, Bonnie W. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-12); NPS-19-N019-BNaval tactical operations could take a significant leap in progress with the aid of a real-time automated predictive analytics capability that provides predictions of second and third order effects of possible courses of ... -
Artificial intelligence and foreign policy decision-making
Berkoff, Russ H. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1997-12);With the advent of a global information society, the US will seek to tap the potential of advanced computing capability to enhance its ability to conduct foreign policy decision making. This thesis explores the potential ... -
The impact of cognitive feedback on the performance of intelligence analysts
Krotow, Geraldine S. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1992-03);Human judgement and the process of decision making have been studied in depth for the past century. More recent research has revealed that feedback is a primary element in the decision making process. Feedback has been ...