An exploratory analysis of projected Navy officer inventory strength using data farming

Download
Author
Bazalaki, Peter
Date
2016-09Advisor
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Second Reader
Lucas, Thomas W.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
U.S. statutory policy requires the armed services to continuously balance manpower inventory with congressionally authorized requirements. Inaccurate forecasts put the Navy's budget at risk and degrade overall mission readiness. Navy policymakers must be able to rely on accurate inventory forecasts to develop necessary manpower plans that steer inventory to match planned authorizations. Strength planners, in turn, rely on forecasting models like the Officer Strategic Analysis Model (OSAM) in an attempt to accurately predict future inventory levels. This study utilizes applications of data farming to OSAM to simulate Unrestricted Line Officer (URL) inventory over a seven-year period. Additionally, the research utilizes applications of Design of Experiments (DOE) to project Surface Warfare Officer (SWO) inventory across a variety of assumptions, including a proposed Enhanced Probationary Officer Continuation and Re-designation (EPOCR) policy. Analysis finds that current policy will reduce FY2016 URL inventory by 8% over a seven-year period, and over-execute SWO inventory authorizations by 40%. We find that EPOCR reduces operating strength deviation (OSD) in total SWO inventory strength by 12% by FY2022. Additionally, implementing a low accession plan and a high transfer plan is the most robust in correcting OSD. When implemented correctly, EPOCR has the potential to decrease OSD to modest levels with minimal risk of under-execution.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Examination of individual performance in the application of Markov models in the Hellenic Navy's officer-performance evaluation system
Michalaros, Anastasios (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2012-03);The recent financial-crisis that Greece (Hellas) suffers has restricted and reduced the budgets of many organizations. Among those, the Hellenic ministry of defense has begun examining ways to reduce costs while maintaining ... -
Ship's officer staffing guide: report of findings and recommendations
Hatch, William Decker; Ohanian, Arthur J.; Simon, Cary A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2003); NPS-GSBPP-03-005The need for communication between an executive level staff and the end users of the manpower requirements determination process has never been greater. However, there is evidence that exterior (outside of the manpower ... -
Optimizing the Distribution of United States Army Officers
McElroy, Jeremy S. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2005-09);The U.S. Army distributes its 51,000 competitive category officers among manning targets specified by location, rank and skill that change over time in response to changing requirements. The officer inventory also changes ...