Estimating the depth of the Navy recruiting market
Monaghan, Emilie M.
Whitaker, Lyn R.
Alt, Jonathan K.
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This research develops a statistical model for predicting the number of leads, as an indicator of market depth, that a ZIP code will produce for Navy Recruiting Command (NRC). The U.S. Navy recruits from all over the country, using previous accessions in a recruiting district to assign recruiters and goals. This research develops statistical models to determine the key drivers of the number of leads at the ZIP code level. This research develops a Poisson regression model to predict the number of leads using factors such as IRS-estimated population size and five cluster membership factors constructed from publicly available data sources. We recommend that NRC make use of the Poisson regression model in order to determine high-yield ZIP codes for market depth.
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