Non-traditional forms of intelligence
Tritten, James J.
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Report considers the new requirements for non-traditional forms of intelligence. Emphasis on new scenarios which require specialists in new forms of intelligence and areas of expertise. Due to the pace of rapid change and wide spectrum of threats, traditional attempts to determine intentions may not work. Authors recommend prioritized review of potential enemy capabilities with emphasis on potential military capability (population, geography, economics, technology for military potential capability), and more emphasis on long-range intelligence using deductive vice inductive approach. Report addresses current intelligence emphasis on technology and proliferation, and recommends identifying countries bent on acquiring new capabilities, what countries have the surplus capital to make such investments, and what levels they can internalize and absorb. Paralleling any effort to identify potential customers must be an economic intelligence program to delineate what is readily available on the open marketplace. Authors also conclude that there are no simple or quick fixes and that reorganization of the intelligence community is not the answer, but may be part of it. They strongly endorse more emphasis on human intelligence as a panacea. Report concludes that the real issue is strategic planning for intelligence, not intelligence in support of strategic planning. The intelligence community has the opportunity to assist the policy world in shaping the future and needs a plan to do this.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
NPS Report NumberNPS-NS-93-003
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