The effects of disruptive technology on project interdiction

Abstract

We model a project network that uses common methods of improvised explosives and metallic liner manufacture for the purposes of constructing anti-armor IEDs. Separately, we model a network utilizing advanced 3D printing technology for the same ends. We then introduce an interdiction extension to both project models. By utilizing decision critical path method models, we examine the differences in the critical paths of both project networks. Our finding of note is that the length of the network employing advanced 3D printing technology is significantly shorter, even after the attacker's interdiction efforts. Because the length of the critical path of this network remains significantly shorter, advanced 3D printing technology can be considered to be a disruptive technology. This flexible modeling can be rapidly implemented when future technological black swans appear. This modeling provides decision makers with clear, quantitative analysis and can be used to drive future intelligence and capability requirements, as well as to inform potential policy responses.