Evaluation of Marine Corps Manpower computer simulation model
Anderson, Eric S.
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Marine Corps Manpower Plans and Policy Division, Manpower & Reserve Affairs, is responsible for formulating Marine Corps force manpower plans. Accomplishing this mission requires extensive knowledge of the Human Resource Development Process (HRDP) for controlling future personnel attrition, retention, and accession quantities to ensure appropriate quantities of its various Military Occupational Specialties (MOS) and overall end strength are maintained. To assist their mission, an agent-based computer simulation model was developed in the Java computer language. This thesis investigates that simulation model, titled Manpower Simulation Model (MSM). This thesis provides documentation of MSM's architecture and processes, tests the sensitivity of its inputs through the use of an experimental design, and validates MSM's output measures by calculating the relative error for five successive forecast years for various HRDP categories. This thesis found that MSM's structure and output measurement responses aligned with HRDP practices. With respect to validation, on average the HRDP categories losses and accessions underestimated by 17 and 18 percent, respectively, while gains overestimated by 36 percent. The category promotions generally underestimated, but lessened in magnitude as grade increased. The category retention consistently overestimated for all grades. Lastly, the MSM showed biasness toward retaining Marines over backfilling vacancies through accessions.
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